What Would A Mid-Term Election, “Blue-Tsunami,” Really Signal?

One of my favorite books is Nate Silver’s, “The Signal and the Noise.” Silver uses the first half of the book to detail the difference between the signal – the things that actually caused some specific result to occur, from the noise – all the stuff that one might think caused the result, but, which turn out to be unrelated. The second half of the book is dedicated to identifying ways in which we can become better at forecasting outcomes. Election results often result in wild interpretations of what the voters were communicating when they cast their votes, as if the entirety of the prevailing party’s voters speak with one united voice – and share one collective brain. If the Democrats come up HUUUGE in the mid-term elections, they will predictably misread the reason for their success. Identifying it as a national rejection of President Trump and his policies and a desire to swing left. What it really represents is either: 1) a rejection Donald J. Trump, or else, 2) a doubled down commitment by Trump supporters to fight the establishment, at any cost necessary.

One would expect establishment Republicans to do very poorly in an environment that either embraces, or tolerates, a President Trump. If those are the candidates running for office, or if there are split tickets with Trumpesque candidates against GOP establishment types, as well as a Democrat, you can expect the Democrat to win.

The biggest misinterpretation comes with the victor’s sense that they have a “mandate.” At any given time, somewhere around half the nation (sometimes more, sometimes less) disagrees with the direction of the country. Any attempt to make a massive shift in one direction or another will be met with anger and resentment – the sort which comes back to bite your party in a few short years.

This misreading of the tea leaves has been an American form of political art for the past 21 years… America’s negative political atomosphere has come of age – and it can’t hold its liquor. Blue Tsunami in the fall just means the the pendulum will continue to swing, farther and farther away from an accurate representation of who we are, collectively.

Is Paul Ryan’s Departure Actually Bad News, Even If You’re A Liberal Democrat?

America’s sociopolitical atmosphere is presently doing its best impression of one hell of a giant, dangerous, motion-sickness inducing carnival ride. One that has a whole bunch of important screws that are loose. And it’s a pendulum. This would actually be good news, if it were a rational pendulum – those lose momentum and eventually stop in the middle, and everyone safely exits the ride. Unfortunately, if you look around for half a second, you will quickly conclude that there is nothing rational going on in western civilization, at the moment. In keeping with that theme, this is an entirely irrational pendulum-ride-monstrosity. It is the sort of pendulum that swings wildly from side to side, always gaining speed, continually careening further and further out of control. Paul Ryan has decided to hit the eject button (likely to be joined by a bunch of other GOP Congressmen and women). The bolts are rattling, the structure’s shifting and he’s not waiting for the ride to come to a complete stop, he’s making a jump for it… honestly, if we know what’s good for us, we’ll all join him. This ride isn’t safe. It’s time to get off. Here’s what happens if we don’t…

 

What does the Paul Ryan decision mean for the Fall and for the future?

Some see it as a signal that Trump is leading the Republican party off a cliff and towards epic electoral defeat.  Others see an insider being evicted from “the swamp,” or, an opponent of the President getting his comeuppance. What is clear is the fact that, if Ryan ran again, he’d most likely lose. Whoever replaces Ryan as the candidate for his district – whoever replaces all of the “retiring” members of the Republican Party, on their respective tickets, help to provide a clear picture of the future. It seems highly improbable that we will see a slate of reasonable GOP candidates. Nothing in our society today seems to even hint at the notion of reasonableness. The two remaining potential outcomes are both pretty terrible.

 

If the GOP opts for the establishment types, they will be slaughtered. Whether you self-identify as a liberal or as a conservative, you might think that this is a good thing. Not so fast, though. This is a solid case of, “be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.” If the Democrats sweep their way into victory on a tsunami of electoral success, their reaction is painfully predictable. They will misinterpret the will of the people, claim they have a “mandate,” having perceived their success as an indication that America has finally made the big move to the far left. The trouble is, that’s not what is happening at all. There will be a massive legislative overreach by the newly minted Democrats and whether it is two years, or six years later, the pendulum will swing back – HARD, and we will end up with an even more extreme outcome, and government, than the one that we presently have.

 

Meanwhile, if the GOP fills the slate with Trumpesque candidates, they will likely see HUUUUGGE success in the coming election, however, the consequences will ultimately be staggering and disastrous. The aforementioned pendulum swing will only occur faster and harder, than if the Democrats routed the GOP in the Fall. The President’s base comes from all walks of life, they don’t care what the rest of the world thinks of us, and they have cast him in the role of the anti-hero-savior. He is their last “hail mary,” in a championship game that they believe (right or wrong) we have been losing. The destruction that his economic policies have the potential to cause will not be realized for some time – some time well after the mid-term election. They have not given up on him, and their numbers are continually underestimated. They will vote for more people in the same mold – because, among many other reasons, they want reform that they don’t believe the traditional candidate has the courage to make. Like other movements that have come and gone, they will eventually lose faith. At about the same time, the passion, frustration, and intensity of the opposing party’s base will reach a fever pitch. It will be a political blood bath. What’s worse, is that they will seek a candidate that pushes them as far in the other direction as possible, causing the pendulum to once again gain momentum and careen wildly out of control.