We like a lot of things that have, for the moment, been stripped away from us:
Walks on the beach, vacations, going outside without being afraid that we might become violently ill and die or bring the plague upon our family, amusement parks, free water ice from Rita’s on the first day of spring, professional sports, that thing about the murderous virus – again, getting to watch our kids play sports, and going to the grocery store without being forced to go, in a singular direction, through every aisle (why in the hell is the word “aisle,” spelled that way? Never mind, I’ll look it up later), because – social distancing. But, of all the things that we miss, there is one thing that I think we miss the most – it’s a bad habit, though, and, it’s time to give it up. It’s our deeply misguided sense of certainty, and, honestly, it’s toxic. To the frustration of everyone who has not previously had the sense of certainty beaten out of them – which, I believe is life’s most frequent method of teaching about uncertainty, the last few weeks have been… rough, to put it mildly. “The Coronavirus,” and CoVid-19, the disease that it causes, are new in humans. This means that we, collectively, “know” – and, this is a technical term – “jack squat,” about the ways to treat it, the ways that we catch it, and the ways to protect ourselves, and our families, from it.
The trouble is, we have a whole bunch of experts, telling us that they do “know.” To make matters worse, the experts at the top, Dr. Anthony Fauci, in particular, seem less confident, and “we the people,” are not used to seeing a prominent expert looking uncertain. There is a reason for this – we don’t give uncertain people the spotlight in America. The media, and politicians alike, stick with “experts” who “know.” What we all know about the experts with whom we disagree is how wrong they always are. We are less convinced that our preferred experts have a similar track record – rest assured, they do. In fact, in the late 1980’s, researcher Philip Tetlock proved that the so called “experts,” performed worse than “a dart throwing chimpanzee.” This is, understandably, maddening. What’s far worse, is that these less accurate than, head-or-tales-call-it-in-the-air “experts,” continue to get a spot on the talking-heads-tv-shows. What we don’t often see, are the Dr. Fauci’s of the world. We prefer our deeply flawed, less than 50-50 experts, who provide us with false certainty, to a truth teller – because, very often, the truth is, “we don’t know.”
So what the hell do we do with, “we don’t know?” How can that be valuable? Well, it’s actually incredibly valuable. If you listen carefully, a Dr. Fauci doesn’t stop at, “we don’t know.” He tells you what we think is true – what the possibilities might be. From there, we make our decisions: what are the chances things go this way, or that way? What is the worst case scenario? What are the chances that the worst case scenario happens? We do this everyday without thinking. For instance, you know that people die in car accidents, but, you still get in a car. Coincidentally, CoVid-19 is killing more Americans every day, right now, than die per day from all accidents, of any type – which happens to be the third leading cause of death in the United States. It’s no joke.
So what do we do, when something is killing people, and, we don’t know how to stop it? We take the extra cautious approach, because the risk is high enough to warrant it. This is why civilization has come to a grinding halt, globally. It isn’t because people were overreacting. If you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying by going on a rollercoaster, then you don’t go on the rollercoaster – unless you’re a moron. Some morons will still roll the dice. Don’t be the moron. It costs you very little to skip outings which are not required. Death, on the other hand, costs a great deal. Extreme illness, which occurs in 15-20% of cases, costs a great deal. So, you stay inside. Some “experts” say take Tylenol for now, because NSAIDs cause this virus to proliferate. Some say that’s just a myth. Unless you have a need to take NSAIDs, use your brain – take the Tylenol. The same with masks – if some say they work, and some say, it’s just a waste of time to use a mask, then use the damn mask. What, are you afraid of looking stupid? I think that you’re pretty stupid if you’ll risk serious illness, to avoid looking stupid, so, let’s assume it is something else stopping you, and that I just can’t figure out what that thing is, and move on. These choices are not particularly difficult. Some of the questions are, of course, harder to answer. These, I will not even try to answer for you – because you need to use your own judgment, based on the available information. If the available information changes, don’t start wringing your hands – just make the adjustment. It should not be a surprise that the information will change, once you accept uncertainty. The approach should always be the same, though. Ask yourself, “what happens if I choose this course of action, versus the other available options?” Then, look at the chances that each outcome takes place, and the consequences of that outcome. Then, ask yourself if you can live with that outcome. Oh, and, for God’s sake – do try not to be a selfish bastard. Think about the impact that your actions have on your loved ones, and, on someone else’s loved ones. If we all look out for ourselves, there is only ever one person looking out for you. If we look out for each other, there are countless people looking out for you. The second way is objectively better.
All of this takes thinking. It’s hard work, and, maybe that’s part of why we don’t like it. Life is not a scantron test – no matter how often someone tries to present it that way. In fact, life is a philosophy class, with a whole bunch of questions that have imperfect, or entirely non-existent answers. Ironically, our schools don’t teach philosophy, so, most of us spend the majority of our lives, alternatively, looking for “the answer,” or hiding from the fact that the question exists at all: what should I do with my life, can you have it “all,” how do I find happiness, etc. Maybe the other reason that we want someone to give us the answer, is so that we have someone else to blame, just in case things don’t go, “just so.” Neither of these motivations are justified, though. Nearly every good thing you’ve ever had required hard work (surely thinking will be no exception), and, you can engage in all the blaming that you’d like, but, in the end, we make our own decisions. So, I’d ask you to allow this crisis to teach you to accept uncertainty, and, embrace that, once life returns to whatever we will eventually call “normal.” You’ll make better decisions, and, you likely lead a happier life, because, you’ll be the one making decisions. You also won’t be blindsided when things don’t go according to plan. You’ll happily acknowledge that nothing is certain, so, why would you ever be certain of an outcome? Of course, I can’t be certain – but, neither can you. It’s just the best conclusion that I can come to, based on all the available information.
thereluctantcommentator 